Natural diamond prices have fallen to their lowest levels in more than two decades, with wholesale prices now estimated to be 30–40% below their 2021 peaks, according to a recent media report. The decline reflects a combination of weaker demand, excess supply and the rapid expansion of lab-grown diamonds.
Retail prices for a mainstream one-carat natural round diamond are currently reported at around $3,530–$3,860. At the same time, lab-grown diamonds are typically priced 70–85% below comparable natural stones, intensifying competition in the mid-market.
The lab-grown segment has seen a sharp decline in prices alongside expanding production. Wholesale synthetic diamond prices have fallen more than 75% since 2022, while prices have declined 29.9% since March 2025, according to data cited in the report.
China has emerged as the largest production centre, accounting for more than 60% of global lab-grown diamond production. Chinese exports of lab-grown diamonds rose 65.3% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, adding further supply to an already pressured market.
The growing availability of lower-priced lab-grown stones is putting particular pressure on mid-tier natural diamonds, where the two categories compete for price-sensitive consumers.
Larger and higher-quality natural diamonds have shown greater resilience, with rarity continuing to support premiums at the top end of the market. However, these goods represent a smaller portion of overall industry volumes.
The contrasting price movements underline the widening gap between the two categories. While natural diamond prices have declined significantly from their earlier highs, lab-grown prices have fallen at a substantially faster pace.
The pressure on polished prices is also filtering back into mining. Debswana, the De Beers-Botswana joint venture, has recorded a significant decline in sales as weaker demand affects the upstream market.
The latest price data also comes against signs of selective stabilization in some natural diamond categories. Rapaport reported that diamond prices extended a recovery in August, with the one-carat category recording its first increase in 15 months and smaller sizes showing stronger gains.
The market is therefore becoming increasingly differentiated by size, quality and category, rather than moving uniformly in one direction.
The growing availability of chemically identical lab-grown diamonds is also challenging the traditional scarcity-based positioning of natural diamonds. While technology has enabled synthetic stones to be produced at scale, larger, higher-quality natural diamonds continue to derive value from their limited availability.
For the trade, the development points to an increasingly segmented diamond market, with natural diamonds competing on rarity, provenance and differentiation, while lab-grown diamonds compete strongly on price and size.
