What is GJEPC’s outlook on the global diamond industry, and how does it expect key markets like the US and China to influence India’s export trajectory?
The Indian diamond industry is very optimistic about global polished diamond demand in 2026. While 2025 began with a period of disruption, market conditions have since stabilized, and the industry has adapted well.
Even though cut and polished diamond exports declined by 8.76% to reach $ 8.20 billion during April–November 2025, compared to $ 8.98 billion last year, the industry is now looking ahead with confidence to the expected bilateral trade agreement (BTA) between India and USA, which is anticipated to further enhance market access and competitiveness. The United States continues to perform strongly, with resilient retail demand, and encouraging consumption trends. Once finalized, the BTA is expected to add further momentum to India’s diamond exports by reinforcing India’s position in its largest export market.
In China, focused initiatives are underway to support a revival in demand. Promotional campaigns by GJEPC and De Beers, in partnership with Chow Tai Fook, along with Alrosa’s collaboration with the Shanghai Diamond Exchange, are expected to reinforce consumer confidence, and renew interest in natural diamonds.
Overall, with stabilizing global conditions, strong demand across the US and other key markets, successful market diversification, and proactive promotional efforts in China, GJEPC remains very optimistic about India’s diamond export trajectory in 2026.
How does GJEPC anticipate the tightening rough supply and rising mining costs to impact India’s manufacturing capacity, and the overall polished price movement in 2026?
GJEPC does not agree with the use of the term “tightening” in this context. What we are seeing is practical production aligned with the prevailing demand scenario. India’s manufacturing ecosystem remains stable, and the labour situation is comfortable, with no cause for concern. In this environment, polished prices are expected to remain largely stable and demand-driven.
How does the Council plan to support the midstream, as compliance expectations — traceability, origin verification, and sanctions adherence — intensify in 2026?
As compliance expectations related to traceability, origin verification, and sanctions adherence intensify in 2026, GJEPC is proactively engaging with global and domestic stakeholders to ensure that the Indian midstream is well-prepared, and remains fully compliant, without disrupting business continuity.
GJEPC is already in active discussions with Antwerp World Diamond Center (AWDC) and Tracr to understand evolving global best practices, and to assess how such frameworks can be adapted and implemented within the Indian context. We will have to take into account the structure, scale, and operational realities of India, and how digital traceability and data-capture mechanisms can be effectively implemented across the country’s highly fragmented midstream.
In parallel, GJEPC continues to align its approach with the Kimberley Process (KP) and Financial Action and Transparency Measures (FATF) norms, ensuring that any measures adopted remain consistent with international minimum requirements, while avoiding duplication, or over-compliance beyond mandated obligations. Emphasis is being placed on practical, scalable solutions that can be adopted by MSMEs without imposing disproportionate costs, or administrative burdens. GJEPC is mapping India’s operational realities to help companies meet evolving expectations on origin verification, supply-chain integrity, and risk-mitigation protocols.
Moreover, the Council intends to support the midstream through awareness programmes, guidance documents, and training modules to ensure manufacturers, traders, and exporters understand and comply with the upcoming regulatory shifts.
What will be the impact on India’s exports if US tariffs do not ease up in 2026?
India is very enthusiastically looking forward to the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States, which, we believe, will create a more conducive environment for trade, and further strengthen India’s diamond exports. At the same time, the industry has been working proactively to prepare for various scenarios, and the Council has been engaging with the trade since February 2025 to ensure readiness and resilience.
We understand that discussions and negotiations are taking place at the highest levels, and we have full confidence in the Government of India. We firmly believe that the decisions taken will be in India’s best interest, and the trade is fully supportive of the government’s efforts in this regard.
We are also thankful to the Government for the steps already taken to ease the challenges faced by traders affected by existing tariff-related issues. Parallelly, Indian exporters are rapidly diversifying into newer and alternative markets, which is helping mitigate risk, and sustain export momentum.
In the event that tariff relief through the BTA takes longer than expected, GJEPC will continue these efforts, closely monitor the situation, and take all necessary measures in coordination with the government and stakeholders to support exports, and ensure continued growth.
How is GJEPC preparing the industry for structural shifts, such as beneficiation pressures in Africa, evolving retail behaviour, and increasing competition from laboratory-grown diamonds in 2026?
India has long demonstrated its ability to adapt to structural shifts in the global economy. As early as 1991, India moved away from protectionism, and embraced liberalization. Today, India is the undisputed global leader in diamond manufacturing, and it is also steadily strengthening its position in retail. Indian jewellery retailers are expanding their footprint domestically and internationally, setting up new stores, and reaching a wider consumer base. Indian diamond jewellery products are gaining increasing traction, reflecting growing consumer confidence and acceptance.
GJEPC does not view these structural shifts — whether beneficiation pressures in Africa, or elsewhere, as threats, but as part of a competitive global landscape. India has consistently shown its ability to extract maximum value from diamonds through skill, scale, and efficiency, and will continue to do so. Beneficiation, in this context, is another form of competition that the Indian industry is well-equipped to respond to.
The Government of India is also taking proactive steps to strengthen the sector’s global competitiveness, with 14 Free Trade Agreements currently under process. These efforts are expected to further support market access and long-term growth.
On the demand side, the Indian domestic market is growing rapidly, and is now the second-largest consumer of diamond jewellery globally. Studies indicate that by 2030, India could account for nearly 30% of global diamond jewellery consumption, providing a strong internal growth engine for the industry.
Overall, with a strong manufacturing base, expanding retail presence, supportive government policy, and a fast-growing domestic market, India is well-positioned to withstand competition, and adapt successfully to structural changes in the global diamond industry.