The National Retail Federation (NRF) has predicted holiday sales this year will increase 4.1 percent to $586.1 billion, following an improvement in consumer confidence despite an uncertain economic and political environment. NRF’s 2012 holiday forecast is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 3.5 percent.

“This is the most optimistic forecast NRF has released since the recession. In spite of the uncertainties that exist in our economy and among consumers, we believe we’ll see solid holiday sales growth this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. The NRF is optimistic that ‘retailers promotions will hit the right chord with holiday shoppers’. The survey indicates that consumers are cautious but capable of spending during the holiday season.

“While moderate compared to what we experienced the last two holiday seasons, the forecast is a very pragmatic look at what to expect this year given the current rate of economic growth,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D. NRF expects consumers to scout for promotions and bargain Also, Shop.org has for the first time in its history released its 2012 online holiday sales forecast, expecting sales to grow 12 percent over last holiday season to $96 billion.