NRF’s holiday forecast to see sales rise 3.7% in Nov-Dec period

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast, holiday sales increase in November and December will surpass the 10-year average of 2.5 percent to 3.7 percent. This would be excluding sales of autos, gas and restaurant.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay mentioned that, “With several months of solid retail sales behind us, we’re heading into the all-important holiday season fully expecting to see healthy growth.” He added that although the economic indicators have shown some improvement, there is yet a caution in the minds of Americans to spend, thereby expecting to see ‘families to spend prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago. Potential disruptions from yet another government shutdown in mid-December and a slower pace of job creation and income growth are just a few key factors that will impact holiday shoppers’ spending this year,” continued Shay.

He identified price, timing and value as key attributed to affect consumer behaviour in shopping, retailers would be sensitive in offering products at competitive prices and digital initiatives, store hours, product offerings and much more.

The forecast noted that online sales to increase between 6 and 8 percent to around $105 billion. Retailers are expected to hire between 700,000 and 750,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with last year’s 714,000 holiday positions. Holiday sales in 2015 are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. Holiday sales in 2014 increased 4.1 percent over the previous year.